Jurrien Timber — Scout report

Posted on 05/29/2022 by admin

The Eredivisie. Both underrated and overrated. In my opinion talents from Ajax get easily overhyped because of the fame of their academy, but among those overhyped talents, a few are very much elite. Jurriën Timber is one of them

With Manchester United being heavily linked with the young defender because of Erik ten Hag’s appointment, this is a good moment to look at this player. What kind of player is he? How well does he perform in the data? In this article, I will attempt to find an answer to that.

Contents

Biography
Seasonal stats
Positions/roles
Defensive qualities
Ball progression
Key passing
Shooting
Comparison with Eredivisie peers
Final thoughts

Biography

Name: Jurriën Timber
Date of birth: 17–06–2001
Nationality: Dutch
Position: Central defender,
Contract expires: 30–6–2024
Current club: Ajax
Previous clubs: Feyenoord (Y), Ajax (Y)
Current international: Netherlands

Timber is a very talented and modern central defender within Ajax’s ranks. He’s comfortable on the ball and facilitates his team mates in the attacking approach. Timber is patient, knows how to progress the ball, and is intelligent in his decision-making. Combining this with his defensive awareness, at such a young age — the defender really is an elite talent.

You can roughly divide defensive players in players who are reactive and players who are proactive, Timber is definitely the latter. He reads the game very well and uses his tactical abilities to spot possible danger and cut it very early on. In intercepting balls and then following up with a progressive pass or run, he really makes for a terrific ball-playing central defender.

The young defender is confident on and off the ball, and his patience can be seen in his composure in passing and finishing. On the other side, he does need some finesse in terms of how he defends. He’s very rigid and wants to complete the task at hand, sometimes resulting in an unnecessary yellow card or fouls given in dangerous areas. He’s very eager and ambitious on the pitch, and sometimes he needs a bit more perspective on how important a foul is or not.

When he commits to tackles he often wins them, just like his defensive duels -as we will see later on. He is strong on the ball and quite a secure player in his own half. In terms of set pieces he isn’t that remarkable, but what can be said is that he isn’t the strongest in a man-marking system, which can both be a problem in set pieces, but also in open play.

It’s important to know that these strengths and weaknesses are based on his performances in the Eredivisie and in the light of his progression as 20-year-old talent.

Seasonal stats

When we look at his season stats, we can see a few interesting things with Timber. In the graph above you can see a percentile radar of Timber based on a central defender template. It shows us how well Timber is doing in a certain data metrics compared to his Eredivisie peers in the 2021/2022 season.

We will go into details for the specific stats later for the absolute data, but in this part, we will look at how well he is doing in certain metrics and what that tells us about his playing style.

He is an exceptional physical presence in the central defensive, what we can see in the data for defensive dues and aerial duels — scoring in the 87th percentile for defensive duels won, but low for aerial duels won. While we look at the possession-adjusted metrics we can see that he scores very high on the tackles (88th percentile) but also very high on the interceptions (83rd percentile). Now, this means that Timber can be characterised as a reactive player but also as a proactive player.

In terms of passing, we see that he scores quite good on the expected assists metric and on the passes into the final third with 83rd and 93rd percentile— but he he does okay in the passes to the penalty area metric with 64th percentile. This is also backed up by the fact that his progression stats are very good, as he scores above the 85th percentile for these metrics.

Positions/roles

Jurriën Timber is first and foremost a central defender, who likes to operate from the right side. He has been used in two different position by Ten Hag in the 2021/2022 Eredivisie season.

In the image above you can see the 4–2–3–1 formation. This is the formation most used by Ajax in the Eredivisie together the 4–3–3 formation. In terms of where Timber plays, he does play on the right back position or in the right central defensive position.

In the RB position, the role of the defender is to be proactive in their defensive actions, connect with passing with the central midfielders and the right winger — but also provide runs down the line and have a physical presence. This game is heavily focuses on transition, so the player should be able to cover great distance.

In the central defenders position, he plays on the right side. The emphasis is on defending in a proactive manner, and in possession of the ball — progress as much up the field and pass the ball into the final third.

Defensive actions

Timber is famous for his defensive actions as we have seen in the radars. The high percentage of successful duels on the ground, make him one of the best — if not the best of the Eredivisie in his respective position.

So where does he conduct these defensive actions?

You can see that he recovers most of the balls on the right side between the middle third and the defensive third. The same area is roughly the area where he does intercept the ball, but these interception happen a lot more central. His tackling does happen all over the pitch and is mainly targeting at the last attempt to get the ball. The high volume of tackles in the opposition’s half indicates that these are attempts to break counter-attacks.

So how high does he score when looking at the defensive midfielders in the league? You can see that in the scatterplot below.

In the scatterplot above you can see how well he performs in terms of the PAdj metrics of sliding tackles and interceptions.

He does commit a lot to sliding tackles per 90 minutes, as you can see he scores below average with his 1,04 sliding tackles per 90 minutes. In terms of interceptions, he does score very high and above average. His 8,31 sliding tackles per 90 minutes are in the top quadrant.

https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?src=https%3A%2F%2Fplayer.vimeo.com%2Fvideo%2F714994023%3Fh%3D7e60c8180c%26app_id%3D122963&dntp=1&display_name=Vimeo&url=https%3A%2F%2Fvimeo.com%2F714994023&image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.vimeocdn.com%2Fvideo%2F1441122207-d3a3dd47c93c1d9ba5d11bf67bed0b79b684e88ef14aa2a8b620dd1b49bb2a35-d_1280&key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&type=text%2Fhtml&schema=vimeo

In the video above you see a compilation of his defensive actions with Ajax in several games. They light his ball recovering ability, his strength in defensive duels and in the defensive awareness of Timber.

Ball progression

The modern central defnder isn’t only concerned with defending and producing defensive actions — but he/she also needs to be comfortable on the ball and progress play from it.

In the scatterplot above you can see the progressive metrics of progressive passes per 90 and progressive runs per 90. Timber does really well here as he scores above average in both metrics. He is a complete player and finds himself surrounded by fellow Ajax player like Martinez.

https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?src=https%3A%2F%2Fplayer.vimeo.com%2Fvideo%2F714998070%3Fh%3D1108cd643c%26app_id%3D122963&dntp=1&display_name=Vimeo&url=https%3A%2F%2Fvimeo.com%2F714998070&image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.vimeocdn.com%2Fvideo%2F1441130508-caf305a695a8159d41c778a28b07467588f872e433391a9d2959da90ac1d48e0-d_1280&key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&type=text%2Fhtml&schema=vimeo

Ball progression can have via different aspects of the game, but I wanted to look at his abilities on the long ball. He can use it to connect with the attacking third or to get out the press of the opposition.

In doing so, Timber not only proves his defensive worth — but also manages to show the worth he has in terms of the progression of the attack and connecting the defensive lines to the attacking third.

Key passing

Every player makes passes in a game, but which passes actively contribute to the progression and construction of an attack? You can see some of these metrics in the beeswarmplot below.

As you can see in the graph above, Timber scores quite average in the most metrics, he does do well in the passes to the final third and passes to penalty area per 90.

What’s interesting is how he makes key passes. He scores in the high average, but the intent of his through passes does tell a lot about how he can help in an attack.

https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?src=https%3A%2F%2Fplayer.vimeo.com%2Fvideo%2F715000081%3Fh%3D177b939c93%26app_id%3D122963&dntp=1&display_name=Vimeo&url=https%3A%2F%2Fvimeo.com%2F715000081&image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.vimeocdn.com%2Fvideo%2F1441134573-e97a712798ef20c27a62957798a518bc83c3c6cf86eac777a5be10aed71837ea-d_1280&key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&type=text%2Fhtml&schema=vimeo

When Timber comes higher up the pitch, he can be the player with the through pass, but most of his passes make sure the midfield can be higher up the pitch and in a more attacking mode.

Shooting

Timber does sometimes in the position to shoot, but how does he do in the quality of shooting?

In the shot map above you can see from where Timber has conducted his shots in the 2021/2022 Eredivisie season. He had 26 shots of which 4 went in goal. 34,6% of his shots were on target and he generated a total xG of 2,7— the latter meaning that he is slightly overperforming with +1,3.

Apart from shooting in the box, he loves to shoot from zone 14 — as that is the zone where comes frequently and tries to shoot from distance. This happens a lot from cleared balls from set pieces. But all his goals come from inside the penalty area.

https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?src=https%3A%2F%2Fplayer.vimeo.com%2Fvideo%2F715004328%3Fh%3D0ea8b68da7%26app_id%3D122963&dntp=1&display_name=Vimeo&url=https%3A%2F%2Fvimeo.com%2F715004328&image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.vimeocdn.com%2Fvideo%2F1441143309-a7ce5c77fc847d0e750d5fbf435a3b39f8ac02aeee25f63f2f60c06dc6519507-d_1280&key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&type=text%2Fhtml&schema=vimeo

Comparison with peers

Now we have looked at the individual qualities of Timber, I would like to compare him to three central defenders from rivals.

Compared to Teze from PSV, you can see that in the defensive side of the game, Timber is superior. Only the aerial duels won and passes to penalty area is where Teze is better — but it’s impressive what the data says about this comparison.

The comparison with Trauner shows us that Timber is superior in all metrics, bar one. It shows the difference of a player who is starting to get used to the level and a player that’s so talented that he is ready for the next step.

Again, in this comparison with Hilgers from FC Twente — the young Ajax defender is superior. The thing is with that Timber is not good in aerial duels, but in all others, he does better than his peers.

Final thoughts

Timber is one of the players that is already good enough for a step up and will only improve. He has been constantly on a good to a great level in the Eredivisie, sometimes being remarkably fantastic against the top sides in the Netherlands as well in the Champions League.

If he goes to the Premier League, he will need time to adjust — but he will fit very well in Ten Hag’s idea of how football should be played at Manchester United.

Mitchell van der Gaag — Excelsior years

Posted on 05/26/2022 by admin

Manchester United have employed Erik ten Hag as manager of the first team. There has been said and written enough about Ten Hag, but he is not coming alone. Alongside him, Steve McClaren and Mitchell van der Gaag have joined the Manchester club. Especially the latter hasn’t been explored too much by the broader public, and that’s why I’m writing this analysis.

In this analysis, I will look at the Portuguese influences on his managerial/coaching approaches, his defensive qualities, and his impressive coaching period at Excelsior Rotterdam during 2016–2018.

Portuguese influence

Mitchell van der Gaag did his UEFA C and B in the Netherlands but managed to do his UEFA A and UEFA Pro in Portugal. And, that’s where the difference is quite noticeable. While in the Netherlands, learning to coach is focused on problem-solving, in Portugal Van der Gaag learned to adopt, adapt and improve.

In Portugal, it’s more based on learning from experts. Experienced coaching comes from learning from experienced coaches while learning from being together with other coaches. In that way, you take lessons from those coaches and you take what you think is important from them.

Defensive qualities

To be able to properly defend, that’s a true art form. Defending is an art, but in different defensive situations, different solutions are applied. Taking from the Portuguese approach, the field can divided in three different thirds:

The idea of defending learned by Van der Gaag in Portugal is that you clear everything that comes in the red zone. No build-up, but only clear the ball and make sure the ball is out of that zone.

That’s not something required in the modern game but has lead Van der Gaag to a fundamental truth. Football isn’t one way or the other, it’s a pragmatic game and in some situations, you need to clear balls. In others, you need to play out from the back.

According to Van der Gaag, a defensive organisation is the foundation of every successful team. We will see how he did that with Excelsior.

Tactics at Excelsior Rotterdam 2017–2018

Excelsior is relatively small club and whenever they are in the Eredivisie, it’s all about survival. Now defending is so much more than just clearing balls as what I have shown you above, but in terms of playing a defensive style of play in the Eredivisie — clearing balls is a big part of it. It all depends on the quality of your players. When the opposition does press high and aggressively, playing out for the back is only for the players with a certain amount of technique and pace in their actions. These are usually not found in the bottom half teams in the Eredivisie. That’s the pragmatic approach from Van der Gaag.

Having been very successful in attack with Belenenses and getting promotion to the Primeira Liga in Portugal, the approach with Excelsior should all be about defensive organisation.

He was very successful in his way of approaching games at Excelsior, leading them to a 12th and 11th place in the Eredivisie table, but in this piece, we will mainly focus on his tactics in the 2017–2018 season.

Formation

Van der Gaag sees the formation of a team as a starting point for the team, because it can’t change quite often. In the 2017–2018 season he used the 4–2–3–1 formation 76% of the time.

4–2–3–1 in possession

The 4–2–3–1 consisted of a back four of Fortes-De Wijs-Mattheij-Karami with a double pivot of Kool-Faik. The double-pivot was quite interesting as both players can be considered as playmakers and more of natural 8s or 10s, rather than 6s. The attacking midfield consisted of wide midfielders Bruins and Elbers, who both had different roles. Messaoud was the attacking midfielder and Van Duinen was the sole striker.

The 4–2–3–1 in possession often changed into a sort of 4–2–2–2, with Bruin inverting to the midfield and Messaoud going wider to the right. Van Duinen would leave his striker position and move to the left flank, while Elbers would assume the striker role.

The formation would change when the ball was lost and the transition would occur.

When the ball was lost, Excelsior usually defended in a 4–4–2 formation. This meant that #10 Messaoud joined Van Duinen in a two-strikers system. Bruins and Elbers dropped deep to join the double pivot and form a 4-man midfield. The defence and the midfield would play close to each other in order to leave little space in between the lines.

At some moments, the formation in defence would even become a 4–5–1. This meant that Koolwijk dropped down to the defence and became the third central defender. In doing so, he left space in the double pivot, which was then filled in by Messaoud, who dropped. Van Duinen was the sole striker in this formation.

Attack

The thing with a defensive organisation is that you try to play from your defence. In other words, the defensive organisation should be solid and when you attack it should be direct, in order to not disturb your defensive organisation. Excelsior did this with playing Van Duinen up top and letting him be the holding player. The ball needed to be controlled just long enough for other people to progress on the pitch.

This can also be seen in the game against Willem II. Van Duinen drops very deeps, but drags defenders with him and allows the attacking midfielders to progress on the pitch. Bruins will go into wide area on the right, while Messaoud in the middle will go to the penalty area, anticipating a cross.

The long ball is important to be direct, but even when pressing the shape of the three players is maintained. Van Duinen presses the player on the ball and gets possession of the ball. After that, Messaoud immediately moves forward into the penalty area, while Faik remains available for passing. In doing so they can move forward with pace, but still have options going forward.

In the image above you can Excelsior in their game against VVV-Venlo in the Eredivisie. The direct passing style does suit the direct approach by Van der Gaag. In just two passes he sets the full back up for a cross. The central defender passes to the inverting and dropping wide midfielder. In doing so, Garcia opens space for a run down the line for right back Karami. In just a few touches and movements, Excelsiors opens up play in the middle to the final third. Faik and Koolwijk assume their positions and stay there, in order to make sure the rest-defence is maintained.

In a slightly more advanced situation against VVV-Venlo we see how the unit of three midfielders stays conservative in the middle third, while Van Duinen has dropped and claimed the ball. Right back Karami has advanced and is a good option for Van Duinen to pass the ball to.

What’s interesting here is that two attacks up top, are the two wide midfielders/wingers who have inverted to attack an eventual cross from the right flank. The idea is that from this moment on, two or three touches are needed to come to a goalscoring opportunity.

Defence

We have seen how Mitchell van der Gaag constructs his attacks or wants to come to goalscoring opportunities, but how does his team portray themselves in the defensive phases of the game? How does he make sure the opportunities are kept to a minimum?

Here you can see how Excelsior try to defend with four people as a unit and move toward the player with the ball. Ball-oriented marking. In this instance against Ajax, they try to do that in order to isolate Huntelaar, who likes to play between the lines.

In the image above you can see how deep the two defensive lines defend to make sure Ajax has as little chance to be successful. The defence is usually 4–4–2 or 4–5–1, but in this instance, it’s a 4–4–1–1 formation, as Messaoud is marking Ziyech here.

In the game above you can see how the two defensive lines are deep and making sure the Heerenveen players are covered well. This means that there is an 8v4 overload from Excelsior. With Messaoud pressing the player on the ball, the progression of this attack is made more difficult.

In this game, we see how NAC on the break as Excelsior need to transition to their defensive shapes. As you can see the back four remains intact, and the midfield consists of three players initially, but they are positioned in a way that the defensive capabilities of Excelsior are favoured.

What will he bring to Manchester United?

Van der Gaag is a very strong defensive-minded coach. He will focus and improve the defensive lines and will make sure it’s not only based on theories but will make it pragmatic. He believes in a personal approach and will talk with the players concerned, getting to know them and giving them the motivation to give it everything.

He is a talented coach who knows the differences between winning trophies, developing young squads and fighting against relegation. This experience in defending will prove to be of a vital part of Erik ten Hag’s management of Manchester United.

Romelu Lukaku — Chelsea 2021/2022

Posted on 05/24/2022 by admin

The season has ended and it’s safe to say that Chelsea is a club where it’s never quiet. One of my favourite strikers in the game is said to be disrespectful and to have a bad season. But how did Romelu Lukaku really do at Chelsea in the Premier League 2021/2022? Time to find out.

I will use data to analyse his performances in this piece. I will use event data provided by Understat/Opta and match data provided by Wyscout. The comparisons will be made with players with at least 900 minutes/10 90s in the Premier League.

Season stats

In the image above you can see a percentile radar. This shows us how well Lukaku has performed in certain data metrics in the 2021/2022 Premier League season compared to his peers.

If we look at this particular data we can speak of an average to relatively poor season — bearing in mind that Lukaku has played the 37th most minutes of the strikers we look at. In the shooting metrics, he does score above average in each category bar the shots on target in % metric.

In the following aspects of this analysis, we will look closer at the shooting and assists metrics

Shooting

In the scatterplot above you can see the metrics of shots per 90 and Expected goals per 90 (xG per 90) combined in one graph. If we want to look at the volume of shots Lukaku has and the corresponding quality of the shots or likelihood of that shot being converted into a goal, this graph helps with that.

If we look at Lukaku’s data we see that he has 2,16 shots per 90 during the Premier League season and a corresponding xG per 90 of 0,42. If you compare that to his peers, he scores slightly above average, as he is the top-right quarter of the graph.

So where did Lukaku shoot from this season?

In the shot map above you can see Lukaku’s shots in the 2021/2022 Premier League. It show all shots, with the red dots corresponding with the goals. He had 43 shots of which 8 went in goal with a corresponding xG of 7,02. This means that he is slightly overperforming.

When we look closer into his xG, we can see that he has 3,44 xG with his left foot (+0,44), 1,42 xG with his head (-0,58), and 2,16 xG with his right foot (-0,84). 6,07 xG comes from open play.

Assists

In the scatterplot above you can see the metrics of expected assists and assists per 90 combined. It shows us how well Lukaku is doing in the expected metrics in comparison with the actual assists given.

As you can see Lukaku has quite a low xA per 90 of 0,10, but what’s even more telling is that he hasn’t given a single assist during the season. He was expected to assist 3,36 times this season and not given one — meaning he underperformed significantly.

Comparison with peers

Final thoughts
Is Lukaku a bad striker?No. Did he become worse over one season? No. There are many reasons why he hasn’t been doing as well as we would expect. While tactics are a big part of it, if we look at the likelihood of contributing to goals, we can make a few claims. He has scored more than you might expect, but also has assisted less than you might aspect.